The SignalRank Index now consists of 60 companies, systematically selected by SignalRank’s algorithm and accessed via the pro rata of our seed partners.

We announced that we had completed our 50th investment in April.

We are now operating at our targeted steady-state pace of making ~30 investments per year. We have completed 16 investments in 2026 to date.

Figure 1 shows the portfolio which is updated automatically at signalrank.com.

Figure 1. The SignalRank Index

The last ten investments were in the following companies, in order of completion:

1. Newme is a fast fashion ecommerce business for GenZ. Shein / Temu for India. Backed by Accel & Point72 Ventures.

2. Consensus is a search engine that uses AI to find answers in scientific research. Backed by USV.

3. Cowboy Space is building data centers in space. Backed by a16z, Index Ventures and IVP.

4. Amca acquires and develops suppliers producing critical components used in aircraft. Backed by a16z, Lux Capital, Lightspeed & Caffeinated Capital.

5. An LLM evaluation and monitoring platform. Backed by Lightspeed.

6. DeepInfra is an AI inference cloud platform. Backed by Felicis and NVIDIA.

7. Vertical AI focused on health insurance. Backed by General Catalyst.

8. Vertical AI focused on identity fraud. Backed by Index Ventures.

9. World model. Backed by Google Ventures and NVIDIA.

10. Voice AI model. Backed by Menlo Ventures and 8VC.

Our target portfolio size by the end of 2026 is 75, so we intend to make another 15 Series B investments this year.

The SignalRank Index now consists of 50 companies, systematically selected by SignalRank’s algorithm and accessed via the pro rata of our seed partners.

When we announced our 40th investment (just five months ago), we analyzed the make up of the portfolio.

Figure 1 shows the portfolio which is also regularly updated at signalrank.com. We are on track to complete 30 investments in 2026 alone (with the portfolio expected to consist of 60 companies by the end of June, and 75 by the end of 2026).

Figure 1. The SignalRank Index

The shape of the portfolio continues to be consistent with our prior analysis:

• Pro rata enables access to quality at scale, with SignalRank investing exclusively alongside the best investors in the world.

• The top co-investors alongside SignalRank continue to be a16z, Sequoia, Lightspeed, Y Combinator & Founders Fund.

• The portfolio continues to perform in-line with the backtest. The 2024 and 2025 vintages are in fact outperforming the backtest to date.

50 investments is a key milestone for SignalRank. We aim to build a portfolio of 150 companies at scale (including 30 investments to be completed in 2026 alone), so there is still some way to go…

In February this year, Citrini released their now infamous AI doomer research. The next day there was a mini market meltdown as investors digested the core contention of the report: AI is coming for labor markets much more quickly and much more deeply than originally anticipated.

In particular, Citrini’s report was a critique of the value of human relationships:

Even places we thought insulated by the value of human relationships proved fragile. Real estate, where buyers had tolerated 5-6% commissions for decades because of information asymmetry between agent and consumer, crumbled once AI agents equipped with MLS access and decades of transaction data could replicate the knowledge base instantly. A sell-side piece from March 2027 titled it “agent on agent violence”. The median buy-side commission in major metros had compressed from 2.5-3% to under 1%, and a growing share of transactions were closing with no human agent on the buy side at all.

We had overestimated the value of “human relationships”. Turns out that a lot of what people called relationships was simply friction with a friendly face.

In essence, Critini argued that AI would reduce almost all jobs to Claude skills, tasks reduced to LLM-executable workflows. And, yes, likely including VCs.

Regardless of the credibility of the claims, agentic venture capital is an interesting thought experiment to consider.

Data-driven VC → agentic VC

VC has historically been somewhat resistant to change. There is a widespread belief that data (and AI) will change every industry in the world except VC. Talent-spotting, coaching & supporting founders is too much of a human activity.

For 10+ years, there have been a smattering of pioneers (such as Correlation Ventures) who have rebuilt workstreams around data for sourcing & selection.

But it is only in recent years “data-driven” VC has become more popularized and VCs have been discussing their own tech stack.

AI agents will likely accelerate this process further.

Our view is that alpha-seeking VCs at the earliest stage will remain a predominantly human endeavor for the foreseeable future. Spotting, selecting & coaching talent has some ineffable qualities that are likely challenging for a model to replicate in the short term. Human qualities if you like. And each investment must have the potential to return the fund. This is a lot of pressure (risk) to put on a model.

But later stage VCs and groups, like SignalRank, who are innovating with smart-beta / index-like models, will likely adopt agentic venture capital at pace. A highly diversified strategy puts less weight on any one individual investment.

Various workstreams, from market mapping to expert network calls, content generation and investment memo generation, are now moving into the agentic realm.

What does this mean for SignalRank?

We are already using agents to generate monthly reports on the broader VC ecosystem. You may have noted our disclaimer at the top of these reports: “This report was written by our suite of AI Agents using Claude Code as orchestrator”.

The future disruption of SignalRank’s current workstreams is likely to focus initially on full automation of our investment process (while retaining human board approval for each new investment).

But sometimes humans want human connection. SignalRank itself relies on human relationships with human seed partners for our entire access model.

We had previously built a software tool to enable our seed partners to upload live Series B term sheets to automatically check whether a Series B qualified for our product. We quietly let it deprecate as no-one used it. Our partners prefer email & WhatsApp.

We are still going to try again here. The next iteration we are working on is creating a WhatsApp group with a SignalRank team member, a SignalRank agent and our seed partner. We hope that most of the interaction is between the agent & the partner, with the SignalRank human just there for oversight.

One area where we continue to see human relationships as absolutely critical is in our own fundraising. Fiduciary duty of our shareholders requires trust, not data.

This is particularly true in VC where the expectation is each investment is a multi-decades long relationship across funds.

Public market quant funds are more advanced. Explainability for investment decisions is not easy. Public quants have developed to this level of trust, with no human input into individual investments, over multiple decades.

The quant VC market is not there yet. This trust is still to be earned. Human oversight is still required, at least for now.

The listing of VCs may be a catalyst for change here as the closed-end fund model enables investors to seek liquidity on a daily basis. This potential for daily liquidity in part forces the manager to up their game. An investor can always sell to buy something else.

Closing thoughts

The real question is not whether AI will enter venture capital. It already has. The question is where humans remain indispensable.

Kyle Harrison previously argued that venture capital doesn’t exist as one monolithic asset class. This line of thinking also applies here.

Venture capital won’t be replaced wholesale by agents. A split will emerge and harden. One one side, artisanal human-crafted investing focused on talent spotting and nurturing. And on the other, higher velocity, systematic, agentic capital allocation.

SignalRank is building the latter.

SignalRank ramped up from 14 investments in 2024 to 22 investments in 2025. In 2026, we are aiming to hit our steady state target of 30 investments. We are on track with this level of deployment so far.

In aggregate, we have made almost 50 Series B investments since starting to invest in 2023. This makes SignalRank the #2 most active investor in qualifying Series Bs globally since May 2023, after Andreessen Horowitz who have made 58 investments.

However, if follow-on investments are stripped out, SignalRank is now the #1 investor globally for initial Series B investments.

By looking at the Crunchbase dataset (to allow apples to apples comparison between investors for announced rounds), we see 13 of SignalRank’s 22 investments in 2025.

SignalRank ranks #9 for all investments in qualifying Series Bs in 2025. See Figure 1.

Figure 1. Top ten most active investors in qualifying Series Bs (2025)

But if we strip out follow-on investments from this same list of top ten investors, SignalRank is #1, as 100% of our Series Bs investments are our first investments in these companies. This is followed by General Catalyst with 12 investments. Another data-driven VC fund, QuantumLight, invested in 9 initial investments (but are not shown here as they are not in the top 10 most active investors in qualifying Series Bs). Note Y Combinator with zero initial investments at Series B. See Figure 2.

Figure 2 # of initial Series B investments by top ten most active investors in qualifying Series Bs (2025)

In fact, the most interesting analysis is to look at the % of Series B investments by this group which were initial investments compared to follow-ons. This illuminates highly differentiated strategies at Series B. See Figure 3.

Figure 3 % of 2025 qualifying Series Bs as initial investments

SignalRank is a pure Series B investor. By contrast, Y Combinator is purely following-on from prior investments. With only 15% of a16z’s Series B investments being new companies to the portfolio, we see how active their firm has become in making early stage bets.

Figure 4 shows this same analysis for 2023 onwards

Figure 4. % of qualifying Series B investments as initial investments, 2023-25

The majority of Series B investments by some of the most active investors (and highest ranked on our models) are follow-ons, not initial investments.

But, as we will see, this belies a fairly healthy level of activity from micro VCs. And the long-term implications for seed manager relevance and returns are far less clear than the current narrative implies.

The challenge

The venture majors are gobbling up dealflow and capital alike. To paraphrase Marc Andreessen, a16z is eating the VC world.

On the dealflow side, the venture majors have parked their tanks squarely on the seed managers’ lawn, from inception onwards. Euclid showed the proliferation of founding support from the biggest funds (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Selected “inception at scale” programs

This dynamic continues at every stage now. Consensus is the game that is attracting capital today at every funding stage. Dan Gray saw that 75% of the 48 early-stage VC funds he analysed recently had a multi-stage capital in their LP base. A16Z’s Martin Casado observed that follow on capital tends to be more and more consensus aligned.

In fact, the barbelling of fundraising for AI companies means startups typically need either much more capital or much less capital than “classic” seed managers typically provide. Fortune recently reported that 40% of seed & Series A rounds in 2026 were $100m+ in size, while Sapphire’s Beezer Clarkson showed mega funds were involved in 70% of $20m+ seed rounds.

Level VC argue “this is a great existential risk for boutique GPs” because boutique firms will “either be outcompeted for seed rounds or will need to pay up to participate, potentially eroding portfolio convexity (i.e. ownership relative to fund size would require massive outcomes to return multiples of the fund)”.

Level VC go on to demonstrate that mega participation can impact returns too: “when the rounds were higher than $20m in valuation, the 90th percentile returns are ~4.6x for mega fund participation (1.75x the 90th percentile of other rounds)…This implies that there is more return momentum in seed rounds with mega fund participation (and also perhaps various forms of reflexivity by their very participation).”

20VC’s Harry Stebbings goes further to tease that concentration is tighter still: “if you are not in the OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, Mercor etc etc you do not fricking matter.” It is maybe for this reason of seeking to demonstrate access to hero assets that we are seeing more seed investors spin up larger later stage SPVs into companies they did not invest in at seed.

The fundraising outlook is not much brighter. Challenged liquidity is hurting fundraising. This is a great take on Bryan “Don’t Die” Johnson: “the real reason Bryan is trying to live forever is because he was an early investor in Databricks and is waiting for the liquidity event.” Many such tales.

And then Cambridge Associates delivers a fundraising body blow, advising LPs to limit investments in seed funds in 2026, citing rising valuations, longer times to IPO, and a crowded seed-fund market: “the probability of having a home run in your portfolio can be pretty slim”. Ouch.

And yet.

Based on our analysis, boutique seed managers (using the ‘micro VC’ designation on Crunchbase, usually funds with <$100m AUM) are still accessing companies which go on to raise high quality series Bs.

Micro VCs invested at seed in almost 30% of all companies which raised a Series B in 2025, up from 20% in 2016. This does not include angels or other VCs with more than $100m AUM.

Figure 2. % of Series Bs where micro VC invested in the seed round, 2016-25

Source: Crunchbase

Given that we support seed managers by financing their pro rata at Series B, this is obviously music to our ears.

Similarly, about 60% of the Series Bs led by a venture major have had a micro VC participate in the seed (Figure 3).

Figure 3. % of Series Bs led by a venture major where micro VC invested in the seed, 2016-25

Source: Crunchbase

This Series B data is obviously time lagging from seed by 12-36 months (and underplays boutique managers as it only focuses on managers who have the ‘Micro VC’ tag on Crunchbase) but is nevertheless somewhat encouraging.

And at the seed stage, we continue to see that micro VCs are in ~25% of all seed rounds in 2025 (Figure 4). This bodes well for future Series Bs.

Figure 4. % of seed rounds where micro VC invested in the round, 2016-25

Source: Crunchbase

On the fundraising side, we see that seed managers are adapting to the environment. We are keeping an eye on some new developments made by seed managers, including:

• Highly concentrated strategies with larger bets in fewer companies (Theory, Striker)

• Managers deliberately positioned as anti-consensus (Indie)

• Sector-focused SPV managers scaling up with AUM beyond a traditional seed fund (Silent Ventures)

• Funds composed primarily of founder LPs (Factorial)

In short, we agree with Clarkson’s assessment that seed investing is more competitive than ever, not necessarily broken. Emerging managers continue to actively participate in the seed rounds of companies that could go on to deliver power law returns.

We previously wrote about the rise of the venture majors (a16z, Sequoia, GC and LSVP) as asset managers who have outgrown the venture category.

For those of you keeping score on AUM and latest fundraises:

This post looks again at these four managers to see how they are investing specifically at Series B. How does this concentration of capital manifest itself at the stage where SignalRank invests? And if SignalRank over indexes on companies backed by the venture majors, what does that mean SignalRank investors are buying?

As well as looking for Series Bs backed by the best investors in the world, SignalRank is simultaneously seeking to support the seed manager ecosystem by financing the pro rata of early stage managers. A subsequent post will consider how the concentration of capital in the venture majors is impacting seed investors.

All Series Bs

The % of Series B rounds including one or more of the venture majors has doubled in recent years to 8% of all Series Bs globally. Similarly, the % of Series B dollars in rounds including one or more of the venture majors has doubled in recent years to ~20% of all dollars raised at Series B rounds.

Figure 1. Venture majors as % of rounds and capital in all Series Bs (by Series B year)

Qualifying Series Bs

SignalRank is aiming to invest in the top ranked companies at Series B, where we score and rank the investor syndicates at seed, Series A and Series B.

If we just look at these companies, the concentration in the venture majors is starker still. The % of qualifying Series Bs with a major is now 60%+, which is a 3x increase in the last ten years (Figure 2).

By looking at dollars invested, the concentration is even stronger. 71% of capital in qualifying Series Bs is in rounds with one or more of the venture majors.

Figure 2. Number of qualifying Series Bs by venture major participant (2016-25)

The concentration of venture majors in qualifiers correlates closely with unicorn generation (as a poor proxy for power law return generation; all power law companies are unicorns but not all unicorns are power law companies).

Almost 50% of all Series Bs where the company went on to become a unicorn saw one or more of the venture majors invest in the Series B (compared to 10% ten years ago, Figure 3).

Figure 3. % of all qualifying Series Bs with a venture major (and % of all Series Bs, both qualifying and non-qualifying rounds, which became unicorns where venture major invested in Series B)

How should we interpret this last chart? What does this mean for SignalRank?

You might argue that our qualification engine over indexes on the venture majors relative to their contribution in unicorn production. But almost 50% of all unicorns now come from venture major Series Bs, so you could do worse than co-investing with the venture majors. An alternative interpretation is that SignalRank is just a diversified portfolio of some of the venture majors’ Series B investments.

It is true that our most common co-investors are the venture majors (Figure 4). On the other hand, we have no dependence on any single one. SignalRank offers a way for investors to achieve exposure across the venture majors’ Series B investments.

Figure 4. SignalRank’s top co-investors from our 45 investments to date

We also do not “just follow” venture majors. We are scoring each round, and a qualifying Series B company must raise quality rounds at each of seed, Series A and Series B. Indeed, not every venture major Series B investment qualified for our product (Figure 5).

Figure 4. Most active investors in qualifying Series Bs in 2025 (by # of investments)

A fairer interpretation is that we are offering smart beta of high quality Series Bs, with SignalRank demonstrating high network centrality. Figure 5 shows how investors are co-investing at Series B in 2025.

Figure 5. All investors with 10+ 2025 Series B investments, with edges showing 2+ co-investments

In summary, high quality Series Bs are increasingly concentrated around the four major venture investors. At SignalRank, we see this by considering the percentage of all qualifiers (on our methodology) where these four investors are present. In turn, this means that SignalRank’s offering is a means for allocators to access exposure to Series B investments by these top investors.

The SignalRank Index is designed to reflect top Series Bs in terms of MOIC potential. As such, understanding the Series B ecosystem is critical to our business model.

In this post, we will consider key trends in the Series B ecosystem in 2025.

We hope you enjoy the report.

Executive summary

• AI boom continues: US artificial intelligence continues to absorb a high proportion of Series Bs, both in terms of number of rounds and capital raised.

• Selection & access remain critical: Series C graduation (& ultimately liquidity itself) remain fragile relative to pre-2021 levels. There is a premium on selecting & accessing Series B companies which can ultimately deliver compelling DPI.

• Capital concentration in fewer funds: the four VC majors (a16z, Sequoia, GC & LSVP) are scaling AUM at pace, with larger checks unlocking more consistent access to the highest quality assets. Conversely this reduces the aperture for other VCs (and their LPs) to access similarly high quality assets on a regular basis.

• SignalRank approaches scale: SignalRank was the #10 most active Series B investor globally last year with 22 investments. In 2026, our goal is to hit our long term cadence target of 30 investments per year.

Preliminary conclusions from the report

AI companies command premium valuations & capital raises

Since the launch of ChatGPT, the market has settled into a new paradigm where US-based artificial intelligence (‘AI’) is the dominant theme.

The overall global number of Series Bs has remained stable over the last three years (~100 Series Bs per month), while the average & median amount raised continues to rise (Figure 1).

This reflects how AI companies are raising more capital at higher valuations than their non-AI peers (Figure 2).

Figure 1. Average & median Series B round size ($m)

Figure 2. Median pre-money valuations & capital raised in 2025

The most active investors are focused on US AI companies

Andreessen Horowitz was the most active Series B investor for the third year in a row, with 37 Series Bs completed & announced (Figure 3). SignalRank is the #10 most active investor with 22 investments completed (or #4 based on Series Bs based on SignalRank’s qualification engine).

Figure 3. Most active Series B investors in 2024 (by # of announced investments)

The most active investors are deploying 80%+ of investments into US companies and 40%+ of investments into AI companies.

Growth investing remains subdued, while liquidity starts to return

Series C conversion remains subdued (Figure 4). <10% of Series Bs are raising Series Cs within two years (compared to c.30% in pre-2022 years).

Figure 4. Percentage of Series Bs which raise a Series C

Qualifying Series Bs (for SignalRank’s product) continue to raise Series Cs at an elevated rate relative to the overall Series B mark (Figure 5).

Figure 5. % of Series Bs which raised Series C (2012-25)

A more positive development has been higher levels of M&A and IPO activity, showing promise for 2026. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that we return to 10%+ of Series Bs achieving an IPO any time soon (Figure 7).

Figure 7. IPO

Final thoughts: no man steps in the same river twice

The Series B ecosystem is never standing still. SignalRank’s approach ensures that our portfolio adapts with the times.

2025 was no different:

• SignalRank Index reflects current investor taste as we only co-invest with the highest ranked investors. As such, 2025 saw the index invest in multiple US AI companies.

• Higher concentration of capital in top funds means access to the companies backed by those funds becomes more important still. SignalRank can co-invest alongside these funds via our pro rata access point to support earlier investors.

• Top ranked VCs retain more capital to follow on at Series C, leading to higher probability of greater Series C graduation rates.

• SignalRank is now operating at scale. 22 investments complete in 2025. Aiming for 30 in 2026.

In sum, 2025 was the year when SignalRank started to demonstrate access to quality at scale. Our investments included Together AI, Skild AI, Sesame AI, Squint, Mercor, Nominal, Function Health and more (Figure 8).

Figure 8. SignalRank’s 2025 Series B investments

Four of these investments were in the top 20 ranked Series Bs of the year per our model (Function Health, Nominal, Truffle Security & Wingspan; slide 9 of the report). Prospective investors no longer ask us about adverse selection.

We now need to maintain this level of quality for 2026 and beyond.

SignalRank has built a diversified index, by investing in up to 30 Series B per year. Series Bs are our exclusive entry point.

This led some wag to note that SignalRank offers ‘seabass’ – Series Bs As A Service.

But what is a Series B?

Companies raising a Series B can look radically different. Safe Superintelligence raised a Series B with no released product and no revenue. Mercor scaled to $100m+ in revenue before its Series B. What unites them is not operating uniformity, but structural and market context.

Core Series B characteristics

We see three core characteristics for a Series B:

• Priced institutional round with new class of preferred stock. The Series B establishes an agreed valuation for the company and creates a new class of preferred stock which typically sits at the top of the waterfall, providing enhanced downside protection for new investors.

• A third (or later) investor commitment. The Series B is typically at least the third round of financing for a company. Follow-on capital attracts greater scrutiny than initial bets; it is easier to forgive a first investment error than a second or third. A Series B therefore reflects accumulated conviction from multiple decision points.

• Market signal. Announcing a “Series B” has signaling power, suggesting product/market fit. The capital is typically for scaling an identified growth engine, not initial product development. Many Series B companies are transitioning from founder-led execution to organizational scaling. Series B stage companies will attract a higher caliber of potential employees, customers and employees.

Why we like Series Bs

SignalRank is a systematic investment company that leverages data to identify the highest potential Series Bs which we access by financing the pro rata positions of existing early stage investors. Why is the Series B round SignalRank’s exclusive entry point?

• A “Series B” demonstrates product/market fit.

  • It is received wisdom that the Series B round is the most challenging to raise because investors are no longer just underwriting potential. They are underwriting progress.

  • Most Series A companies do not raise a Series B (~65% per our research). A “Series B” puts a company into a distinct subset of the ecosystem, clearly differentiated to companies raising a Series A extension / plus.

  • Our algorithms at SignalRank are designed to establish whether the “Series B” is indeed a marker of potential, or simply a heavily disguised bridge round.

• Compelling returns with minimal post IPO risk

  • A Series B investor is still early enough to benefit from power law dynamics. 20x+ returns from Series B are entirely achievable.

  • At the same time, Series Bs tend to be largely insulated from post IPO risk which disproportionately impacts later rounds, especially where investors are subject to post IPO lockup periods. Even in companies which have performed poorly as public companies, Series B investors have often seen tremendous returns.

• Sufficient data for a risk-adjusted quantitative approach

  • A Series B is usually at least the third time that the company has been vetted by investors. This is particularly useful for our approach as our algorithms focus exclusively on investor patterns and behaviors.

  • Our methodology analyzes pre A, Series A, and Series B data to identify high potential companies. With this approach, we can increase the probability of investing in a unicorn from Series B to approximately 30% (versus <10% for the market average). Our back tests indicate a 2x+ return for our investors relative to the market average.

• Attractive pro rata allocations for seed investors

  • The Series B round is typically the round where it becomes problematic for seed investors to maintain their pro rata stakes, allowing for opportunistic growth investors to acquire larger stakes in Series B companies.

  • 99% of seed managers do not have opportunity funds. SignalRank aims to empower these seed managers by enabling them to maintain their pro rata in their winning companies.

  • Because the Series B round is still early in a company’s lifecycle, seed investors typically still play a somewhat meaningful role. SignalRank helps seed managers preserve their ownership and voice in the company for longer by retaining their stake at pro rata levels.

Concluding thoughts

So, yes, it is fair to say that we offer seabass. But more importantly, we offer a systematic way to access one of the most structurally attractive entry points in venture capital.

What do BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Benchmark’s Everett Randle and SaaStr’s Jason Lemkin have in common?

They all believe that a tsunami of retail capital is coming to the private markets: here, here and here.

But retail participation isn’t simply a question of demand. It’s a question of structure. All investors seek transparency, simplicity and liquidity. Retail investors even more so.

What is the right structure to enable retail investors to participate in venture capital?

Increasingly, the answer is closed-end funds (“CEFs”).

SignalRank has previously written about how to index venture capital, and why, in our view, the potential for asset liability mismatch makes interval funds a poor structure for venture allocators (not that this has stopped Ark, Stepstone and others).

Instead, we are seeing more managers opt for an exchange traded CEF model. DXYZ & Flat Capital have this structure, as will the recently announced Robinhood Ventures and Powerlaw Corp. SignalRank is actively exploring this path forward as well.

Why is this trend happening?

Why are we seeing growth in CEFs?

The main reason for the rise in closed-end funds is preparation for the surge of retail capital about to hit alternatives, including venture capital. Mutual funds cannot hold much illiquidity, ETFs cannot hold private assets, and GP/LP funds cannot take retail money. CEFs fill the regulatory gap.

An equally important facet of CEFs is its attractive liquidity profile. As permanent capital structures, shareholders are trading shares in the CEF, not in the underlying portfolio itself. As a result, CEFs can hold illiquid private assets without daily redemption risk; there is no potential for liquidity mismatch. But, at the same time, retail investors benefit from daily tradeable shares for exchange traded CEFs.

CEFs also have a lower regulatory burden in some areas, notably in the marketing of the fund. CEFs can be marketed much more broadly to potential investors, facing fewer regulatory constraints around solicitation than a traditional VC fund. Similarly, CEFs have more flexibility in what they can invest in relative to BDCs (which have increasingly become vehicles for private credit managers).

Finally, the share price of CEFs is driven by supply/demand rather than tied explicitly to NAV. This dynamic is often misunderstood and can allow CEFs to trade more freely in-line with the market’s view on valuation. In some cases, notably DXYZ (which has a high concentration in SpaceX) and Flat Capital (which has high concentration in OpenAI and Klarna), CEFs can trade at a significant premium to NAV.

In short, the CEF is an attractive structure in the US regulatory system for private-asset retail investing.

So how do these CEFs compare?

Figure1. Comparing SignalRank to CEFs

The live CEFs today, especially DXYZ and Flat Capital (shown in Figure 1), are focused on creating more concentrated portfolios of well known pre-IPO assets. It’s a compelling strategy.

The current CEFs today are following Real Madrid’s Galáctico model of portfolio construction, acquiring the biggest global stars. Just as Real Madrid acquired Zidane, Ronaldo and Beckham at the peak of their powers, so the current crop of CEFs have a star-name concentration strategy designed to appeal to retail investors, albeit potentially at the expense of likely future growth, portfolio balance and diversification.

The commercial success of Real Madrid in the last 20+ years has been undeniable. Similarly, the CEFs’ focus on the SpaceXs /OpenAIs of the world no doubt has a strong pull, as reflected in the fundraising success and premium market value of some of the above CEFs.

By way of contrast, and to continue the soccer analogy, there is another model. SignalRank is aiming to build more along the lines of the Barcelona school of thought. The Catalan team famously sought to prioritize its system into which home-grown talent (including Messi, Xavi and Iniesta) could flourish to deliver more consistent and repeatable results.

SignalRank offers a distinct market position across five dimensions:

• Management: internal management aligns incentives for long-term compounding (rather than AUM accumulation)

• Systematic selection: a rules-based data-driven approach reduces idiosyncratic manager bias

• Diversification: a portfolio of 150 companies (30 investments per year) distributes risk more effectively than concentrated “star” portfolios.

• Growth: Series Bs demonstrate high multiple return potential

• Security: direct ownership of preferred Series B stock, rather than common or forwards, provides cleaner cap table exposure

SignalRank offers a systematic index of the Series B layer of the venture ecosystem. It would complement late stage CEFs.

¡Força SignalRank!

Important Disclaimer

This release is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial product. A back test is not the same as a promise of market performance and cannot be relied upon for that. Please consult your advisors to consider an investment. Investments in early-stage companies are risky and should be made only by accredited investors after seeking independent professional advice. Any future plans of the Company depends on the satisfaction of a variety of conditions, including, but not limited to, market conditions, regulatory approvals, and the company’s performance at the time. Past performance—including actual or backtested—is not indicative of future results. Signal Rank Corp. is not a registered investment company or advisor under the Investment Company Act of 1940. Our algorithm identifies potential Series B investment opportunities based on historical data which may or may not be complete and does not guarantee any future results. Our portfolio companies are generally private, which means that they do not trade like public securities and may be illiquid and difficult to sell, rending our own securities illiquid and difficult to sell as well.

The asset management industry clearly heard BlackRock’s Larry Fink call for portfolio construction to move from 60:40 stocks:bonds to 50:30:20 stocks:bonds:privates. A surge is underway for individual investors seeking private market exposure.

The focus of the recently acquired secondary platforms is mainly the ~50 best known late stage companies. But we consider in this post whether the earlier stage VC ecosystem can also benefit from future flows of retail capital into private markets.

Why now?

Compelling historic returns (especially as companies are staying private longer) is one impetus for this drive to privates.

But the answer to “why now” is more a zeal for regulatory change than anything else. The US government is actively seeking to open up 401(k)s to crypto and private markets alike. The market is reacting accordingly.

These acquisitions lay the foundations for Wall Street to step up selling of private market products. The platforms provide data & relationships to deliver superior risk assessment and superior access to quality opportunities. In addition, these secondary platforms position Goldman & Morgan Stanley for any IPO business from these private companies.

There are still some major complications before the retail floodgates are fully open, particularly around valuations (as 401(k) participants seek daily NAVs) and liquidity (as the SEC fears retail investor capital being locked up for major life events).

Interestingly, the SEC’s advisory committee report in September recommended that indirect access, not direct access, should be the preferred mechanism for enabling private market access:

In the Committee’s view, the optimal way for retail investors to access private market assets is through registered funds, which allow retail investors to invest in broadly diversified funds that contain private market assets, often alongside public market assets. The investor protections embedded in the registered funds framework include Commission review, audited financials, professional fund management, diversification, various levels of liquidity, and the protections of the Investment Company Act. The Committee therefore recommends changes to Staff Interpretations and/or rules under the Investment Company Act of 1940 to allow registered funds to better facilitate investing in private market assets.

This echoed remarks by the SEC chairman, Paul Atkins, in May about how he wanted to reconsider the 15% limit on private market investments by closed-end funds.

It is therefore curious as to why the EquityZen & Forge Global acquisitions took place, given that each of these platforms is better known for direct access to the top ~50 unicorns than they are for delivering diversified fund products.

We can only assume that GS/MS/CS intend to leverage their access to direct companies from these acquisitions to then build new indirect products. The Charles Schwab CEO said as much on CNBC yesterday morning. Industry Ventures of course already has a well established indirect secondary business.

DXYZ update

At the same time as these acquisitions, Destiny XYZ, a listed closed end fund focused on private markets, announced this week that they have an additional $70m of cash to deploy into pre-IPO unicorns. They continue to trade at a significant premium to NAV.

DXYZ is an example of broadening access to private markets, wrapped in a registered fund with liquidity via the public markets and regular valuation updates. This appears to be in-line with how the SEC is envisaging expanding retail private market exposure.

How does this impact SignalRank?

At SignalRank, we see these developments as positive.

SignalRank is investing at Series B in what we believe will be the household names of the future. We are backing earlier stage companies with higher growth profiles, which is reflected in our expected returns.

These platforms are therefore complementary to our approach, offering later stage access for investors to the highly sought after household names in the private market. Perhaps of greatest value to SignalRank is the broad market education that these platforms provide to retail investors about the opportunities within private markets.

They also provide much needed liquidity to existing investors in these companies. These secondary platforms can become partners of ours to acquire our annual matured cohorts after Year 5.

If we take a broader view about the flowing of retail capital into the private markets, SignalRank can act as an intermediary to support the channeling of retail capital into the earlier stage ecosystem. This has historically not been possible - a typical $50m seed fund is not usually available on retail platforms (due to size, track record and regulatory considerations).

A listed entity could attract retail capital at scale to direct into the highest quality Series Bs in a highly diversified risk-adjusted structure.

In sum, these recent acquisitions play to the broader theme of the democratization of alternatives. Wall Street institutions (& the SEC) now see VC as a serious component of any investment portfolio, even for retail investors. And, with SignalRank, retail investors can start to access earlier stages of the ecosystem.

Highlights of the program to date:

• Pro rata enables access to quality at scale: 1.3x MOIC for the two year-old portfolio, including ~1.4x for the 2025 cohort (after Mercor’s Series C).

• Clear product market fit with seed managers: 40 investments in support of 29 distinct seed managers.

• Achieved network centrality: a16z is #1 co-investor with 10 shared portfolio companies each, followed by Sequoia, Lightspeed, YC, & General Catalyst.

The SignalRank Index

Figure 1 shows the portfolio which is also regularly updated at signalrank.com. We are on track to complete 25+ investments in 2025 alone.

Figure 1. The SignalRank Index

SignalRank’s systematic selection engine is identifying the top 5% of Series Bs which we can access via our pro rata model. In each month, we are now seeing up to 65% of all Series Bs globally.

The SignalRank Index is representative of the full distribution of qualifying Series Bs, including the #1 ranked Series B on our model this year (Nominal, backed by Sequoia, Founders Fund, General Catalyst, Lightspeed & Lux Capital).

Our biggest challenge is filling secured allocations. We are regularly seeing $5m+ allocations into qualifying Series Bs, of which we are filling <20% based on our current capital limits. Hence offering co-invest to our shareholders for no additional fee/carry.

The Total Addressable Market for pro rata in the top 5% of Series Bs is ~$700m, of which we are targeting $150m per year (30 investments * $5m). We are already seeing quality dealflow at this level.

SignalRank co-investors

SignalRank is exclusively co-investing alongside world-class investors. a16z is the #1 co-investor with 10 shared portfolio companies.

Figure 2. Top 5 SignalRank co-investors

Another way of thinking about what SignalRank has built is a smart beta product for venture capital. If we look at every investor who has made 5+ investments in qualifying Series Bs in 2025, we see that SignalRank has a high measure of network centrality (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Investors with 5+ investments in qualifying 2025 Series Bs

Source: SignalRank; Crunchbase(with size of node based on # of investments and edges showing co-investments)

SignalRank Index performance

This portfolio is currently valued at 1.3x MOIC (Figure 4; with valuations established in-line with our NAV policy). This includes the 2025 cohort which is already held at ~1.4x due to Mercor raising a rapid Series C at a significant uplift to the prior round.

This performance to date is in-line with our back-test after two years.

Figure 4. SignalRank MOIC per vintage

Notable publicly-announced subsequent rounds are shown in Figure 5. We are aware of at least four more priced up-rounds in the portfolio before the end of 2025.

Figure 5. Notable publicly-announced subsequent rounds in the SignalRank Index

SignalRank Index diversification

The goal is for each investment into the SignalRank Index to be broadly equal weighted. A number of portfolio companies have subsequently closed later rounds (and some companies have been marked down), such that the percentage of NAV per company is as follows in Figure 6.

Figure 6. SignalRank Index holdings as share of Net Asset Value

The SignalRank Index has achieved diversification across seed managers, sectors, geography and vintages.

SignalRank has supported 29 managers across the 40 investments (Figure 7). We have financed five investments for the top seed manager.

Figure 7. Number of SignalRank investments per seed manager

Just over half of the portfolio is invested in AI companies (Figure 8), followed by FinTech and Robotics. There is overlap here in that a company can be designated to be in both AI & FinTech (e.g Aleph which is an AI software company for FP&A).

Figure 8. SignalRank Index by sector

Our mandate is global, but the algorithm does favor US investors (due to higher MOIC production) & in-turn US companies. 75% of the Index is in US-based companies (Figure 9).

Figure 9. SignalRank Index by geography

Concluding thoughts

The biggest question we ask ourselves is whether we are seeing the full distribution of Series Bs. This is critical in a power-law environment. Without access to generational companies, the returns will be subpar.

Our model is designed to reduce adverse selection, from a negative selection engine (which eliminates zeroes rather than identifying winners) to offering market-leading carry (such that partners share all Series Bs, not just those that cannot be financed elsewhere).

It is still early days with SignalRank. But, with 40 investments completed to date, we are increasingly confident that we are selecting & accessing the full distribution.

We expect this to reflected in our portfolio’s MOIC in due course.

Important Disclaimer

This release is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial product. A back test is not the same as a promise of market performance and cannot be relied upon for that. Please consult your advisors to consider an investment. Investments in early-stage companies are risky and should be made only by accredited investors after seeking independent professional advice. Any future plans of the Company depends on the satisfaction of a variety of conditions, including, but not limited to, market conditions, regulatory approvals, and the company’s performance at the time. Past performance—including actual or backtested—is not indicative of future results. Signal Rank Corp. is not a registered investment company or advisor under the Investment Company Act of 1940. Our algorithm identifies potential Series B investment opportunities based on historical data which may or may not be complete and does not guarantee any future results. Our portfolio companies are generally private, which means that they do not trade like public securities and may be illiquid and difficult to sell, rending our own securities illiquid and difficult to sell as well.

Figure 1. Distribution of 2018 MOICs per Carta data

It should not be news that there is a power law at Series Bs. But this chart appears to be a Rorschach test as to VCs’ investment style and how they consider the ecosystem. The debate on 20VC is worth watching on this topic, clipped here.

Jason Lemkin argues that this data shows how hard picking is (67% of rounds return <2x even at Series B), while Rory O’Driscoll argues that delivering on this distribution would lead to a 3x net return for LPs (or 3.7x gross).

This Carta chart speaks to a broader debate about concentration versus diversification (pejoratively labelled as “spray and pray”).

At SignalRank, we see this chart as supporting the notion that indexing Series Bs can deliver compelling returns, if you were to invest in all 547 companies. The big assumption here is that you can access the 10x+ companies as easily as the duds.

Our strategy is to aim for the top 5% of all Series Bs. How would indexing the top 5% of all Series Bs compare to this 3.0x return?

In order to answer this question, we first considered the Crunchbase data set (1,263 Series Bs in 2018 globally, ex China) which is larger than Carta’s (547 Series Bs). By applying our model, we reduce the number of potentially qualifying Series Bs to 82 (roughly 6% of all Series Bs).

Figure 2 shows the distribution of these three datasets for 2018 Series Bs. The Crunchbase dataset shows slightly worse performance than the Carta dataset.

By eliminating the bottom 95% of Series Bs on our model, our methodology reduces 2x or lower outcomes to 40% (compared to ~65% to the other datasets), while boosting power law returns to 14%.

Figure 2. MOICs from 2018 Series Bs: comparing Carta, Crunchbase & SignalRank

What if you were to index these Series Bs?

On our math, the gross return would 3.2x if you were to equal weight invest across all 1,263 Series Bs (and if you assume <=1x MOICs are zeroes).

If you were to equal weight an investment into every SignalRank Series B (and assume <=1x are zeroes), the overall MOIC would be 6.0x.

If you could truly index the top 5% of Series Bs, the math suggests you’d outperform most concentrated VC portfolios. That’s what we’re building at SignalRank.

This is particularly important in a power law environment where the vast majority of returns reside within a tiny subset of the companies. The ability to consistently support these companies at Series B is critical not just to our returns, but to helping seed investors fully capture the upside of their best picks.

The good news is that our access continues to improve. Figure 1 shows the top 10 ranked Series Bs per vintage per our models. The companies we invested in are in green, while companies we saw but did not invest in are in pink and companies we did not see are blank. We invested in two of the top 10 companies last year (Anrok & Bounce).

Figure 1. SignalRank’s access to top 10 ranked qualifying Series Bs in 2023 & 2024

Source: SignalRank

In 2025 to date, we have invested in two of the top 10 ranked Series Bs, including the #1 ranked company on our model for this year so far (Together AI, see Figure 2). We are seeing our access continue to improve (Figure 2). But we know we’re not seeing everything yet. That’s why expanding our partner network is a priority.

Figure 2. SignalRank’s access to top 10 ranked qualifying Series Bs in 2025 (Jan-Mar 2025)

Source: SignalRank

So why is our access improving?

It could be because we have been in market for longer, with higher brand awareness and stronger relationships with a larger network of seed managers. This would be the feel good answer.

Structural reasons are more likely:

1. Larger round sizes allow for more pro rata

   AI companies with high execution velocity are able to attract ever more capital, and may need to raise more capital still to keep ahead of their competition. A $2bn pre-money valuation allows for a $100m Series B with just ~5% dilution. Larger rounds leave more space for existing investors to fill their pro rata.

2. Opportunity funds are out of vogue

   NextView’s Rob Go asked the question of whether we are seeing the end of seed investing as we know it, driven by the trifecta of Y Combinator attracting top talent (to the detriment of non-YC seed investors), mega-funds investing at seed (thereby squeezing out seed VCs) and AI being too capital intensive for seed investors.

   He may be overstating the case somewhat, but it is clear that seed investors are fighting harder for every dollar being raised. A corollary has been the number of opportunity funds closing has ground to a halt. Seed investors are therefore left with the options of enduring dilution, trying to spin up an SPV with their LPs, or partnering with SignalRank (with full 20% deal by deal carry).

3. Pre-IPO SPV opportunities favored

   Mid-stage SPVs (at Series B / Series C) have become harder to fill for managers seeking to take advantage of their pro rata directly with their LPs. Liquidity is the focus for these types of LPs, preferring to pile into household pre-IPO names (SpaceX, Stripe, Anduril, etc) than backing higher growth Series Bs with unknown liquidity timeframes.

We are now working with 200+ seed managers who are sharing 100+ post Series A / pre Series B opportunities with SignalRank per month. This is enabling us to see a high proportion of all qualifying Series Bs on our model.

By supporting our managers, we are not replacing seed investors’ own capital strategies, but offering a complementary product: our capital allows seed investors to preserve ownership in their best companies, with instant execution (without spinning up a separate SPV), and aligned interests (with our partners enjoying full 20% carry).

We’ve made a strong start. But to fully deliver on our mission, we know we must continue to earn the trust of the seed community. That’s how we’ll achieve the kind of consistent access required to execute fully on our strategy.

The SignalRank Index reflects the top 5% of Series Bs in terms of MOIC potential. As such, understanding the Series B ecosystem is critical to our business model.

In this post, we will consider key trends in the Series B ecosystem in H1 2025.

We hope you enjoy the report.

Executive summary

• AI continues to be the core focus: AI is absorbing an increasing proportion of Series Bs, both in terms of number of rounds and capital raised.

• The number of Series Bs has stabilized, the average $ raise is rising: the number of Series Bs closed globally per month has remained flat for the last two years at ~100 per month. Beyond AI, the other sectors which continue to attract quality capital are defense (e.g Mach Industries) and FinTech (e.g Savvy Wealth).

• US retains capital density: the most active Series B investors (A16Z, General Catalyst, YC, Khosla & Lightspeed) are increasingly focused on US companies. 100% of A16Z’s 2025 Series Bs to date have been in the United States.

• Promising signs for liquidity: Series Cs, like Series Bs, remain flat in terms of number of rounds. A bright spot has been higher levels of M&A and IPOs, showing promise for the rest of the year

• SignalRank deploys at target cadence: SignalRank invested in 16 Series Bs (of which 9 have been announced) in H1 2025, making SignalRank one of the most active Series B investors globally.

Preliminary conclusions from the report

AI companies command premium valuations & capital raises

The overall number of Series B rounds has remained flat over the last two years, while the average & median amount raised continues to rise (Figure 1).

This data is a reflection of how it is primarily AI companies that are raising more rounds, larger rounds, at higher valuations and from higher quality investors than their non-AI peers (Figure 2).

Figure 1. Global number of Series Bs per month & average Series B raise

Figure 2. Median pre-money valuations & capital raised in 2025

The most active investors are focused on US AI companies

Andreessen Horowitz & General Catalyst were the joint most active Series B investors in H1 2025, each with 16 Series Bs completed & announced (Figure 3). At SignalRank, we have closed 16 investments too in H1 2025, of which 9 have been announced and a further 7 remain unannounced.

Figure 3. Most active Series B investors in 2024 (by # of announced investments)

The most notable shift compared to 2024 is a concentration on US companies, with 100% of Andreessen Horowitz’s Series B investments in US companies. Similarly, the most active investors over index on AI relative to the overall market (Figure 4).

Figure 4. Analysis of top 5 most active Series B investors in 2025

Growth investing remains subdued, while liquidity starts to return

Series C conversion remains subdued (Figure 5). <10% of Series Bs are raising Series Cs within two years (compared to c.30% in pre-2022 years).

Figure 5. Percentage of Series Bs which raise a Series C

It is worth noting that qualifying Series Bs (for SignalRank’s product) continue to raise Series Cs at an elevated rate relative to the overall Series B mark (Figure 6).

Figure 6. % of Series Bs which raised Series C (2012-25)

A more positive development has been higher levels of M&A and IPO activity, showing promise for the rest of the year. Four recent IPOs delivered compelling returns for their respective Series B investors (Figure 7).

Figure 7. Series B returns (based on Series B share price) from select 2025 tech IPOs

Concluding thoughts

The Series B market has stabilized into a new post-ZIRP AI-focused rhythm.

The pace at which AI companies can scale has moved the goalposts for companies seeking to raise quality Series Bs. It is no longer unusual to see companies scaling to $100m “ARR” within two years of formation. In turn, this has led to higher valuations for strong companies at the Series B.

AI should enable such productivity gains that companies are able to achieve cashflow breakeven with less capital than in prior cycles.

It is perhaps surprising then to see that the way in which companies are raising capital has not really changed. The alphabet soup continues. Fundraising is more a reflection of supply/demand than anything else. And possibly a reflection of VCs’ unwillingness to consider a shift in pattern recognition away from staged funding at seed / Series A / Series B / etc.

Perhaps more surprising still is the concentration on companies based in the US. European sojourns have come to an end for select major VCs, who are doubling down on the Bay Area (with A16Z & Coatue, for example, recently closing up shop in London). The Generalist is today imploring successful European founders to unretire.

Finally, we are pleased to see that recent liquidity has brought some optimism back into the broader venture market. We hope to see this continue into the second half of the year.

Inspired by Rotman, A*’s Bennett Siegel has now applied a similar approach to identifying the lead seed investors from every AI unicorn founded since the transformer paper landed. He points out that none of these unicorns has come out of YC, and no one except Andreessen Horowitz has led or co-led more than two seeds.

Our post here piggybacks on Siegel’s list to analyze the top AI Series B lead investors from the same list of companies. We see that General Catalyst and Kleiner Perkins have each led three of the leading AI Series Bs.

SignalRank is an investor in five (or 26%) of the 19 companies from this list that have raised a Series B since we started to invest.

AI Series B lead investors

Before we look into this, two major caveats to Siegel’s list:

1. This list ignores any companies founded prior to 2017. OpenAI is the most glaring omission.

2. It is so early in the AI tech cycle. None of these companies has achieved maturity.

26 of the 37 AI unicorn companies from Siegel’s list (shown in Figure 1) have raised a Series B or subsequent round.

It is perhaps more remarkable that 11 of these $1bn+ valued companies have not raised a Series B yet. $1bn+ valuations can be achieved at “seed” alone these days. SSI, founded in June 2024, has a rumored valuation of $32bn pre-product.

The potential size of the AI prize is the justification for such valuations; investing in SSI today is an option on it becoming the next OpenAI, which itself is valued at $300bn. VenCap’s David Clark showed how the top 1% of exits is 7x larger than 20 years ago, whereas the top 1% of funds has only increased ~2x.

Figure 1. Lead investors in AI unicorn Series Bs since 2017

Kleiner Perkins & General Catalyst have led the most Series Bs into subsequent AI unicorns (Figure 2). Kleiner Perkins has a strong hit rate of 33% when they lead a Series B into an AI company (using Crunchbase data). Bain Capital Ventures follows with two lead investments.

FTX (Anthropic), Altman Capital (Owner) & Redpoint (Owner) remarkably have a 100% hit rate when they lead at Series B in an AI company.

Conversely the hit rate of the following is below 10% when they are leading a AI Series B: Spark Capital, Coatue, Andreessen Horowitz, Lightspeed and Tiger Global. The comparison may be a little unfair as these firms have been ramping up their AI investments such that almost none of the non-unicorn Series Bs will have yet achieved maturity.

Figure 2. Ranked Series B lead investors in AI unicorns since 2017

AI Series B investments (incl lead & non-lead investments)

If we expand the analysis to look at all Series B investments (lead & non-lead) into this list of AI unicorn companies, we generate Figure 3.

General Catalyst is again the #1 investor with eight Series B investments into AI unicorns since 2017, from 39 Series B investments into all AI companies since 2017, implying a 21% unicorn hit rate.

SignalRank is ranked #4= on this methodology by number of AI unicorn investments at Series B, with an implied 31% hit rate to date.

Again, it is early as none of these Series B investments is yet to achieve maturity.

Figure 3. Top 10 investors by number of Series B investments into AI unicorns

Concluding thoughts

There are no real surprise names in this list.

The lead investors here echo the analysis from the prior post on Series Bs in $5bn+ companies (where General Catalyst was also the #1 lead investor by number of Series B investments into $5bn+ companies.

Persistence of famed multi-stage firms continues to be strong. Newer names of significance in this cycle at Series B are Thrive Capital, NFDG & Altman Capital.

It is perhaps noteworthy to see a strategic investor (NVIDIA) leaning into investing so early in development of a technology cycle and so early in the development of these companies (at Series B). NVIDIA has strong visibility in this space, so will be able to ascertain what is doing well. They have also perhaps learnt from prior technology cycles to try to hedge against the innovator’s dilemma – if you’re going to be disrupted, at least own a portion of the upside.

We caution (again) that most of these Series Bs took place in the last two years, such that the companies are yet to fully develop. It is still early in the development of the AI cycle.

The Index now consists of 35 companies, all selected by SignalRank’s proprietary algorithm and accessed via the pro rata of our seed partners.

We started investing two years ago in May. Here are some of the key milestones achieved in those two years:

1. Top decile performance of US VC funds for the 2023 vintage (per Carta data)

2. 35 investments completed to date, making us the 2nd most active Series B investor in the world. Every investment is alongside the highest quality VCs.

3. Our growing seed network now gives us visibility of over 50% of all live B rounds globally

The full (announced) Index can be found on our website here.

In this post, we analyze the Index to date, summarize our progress and consider our forward-looking goals.

Index analysis

1. Index performance

The Index is still young as our first investment was in May 2023. We have nevertheless already seen strong momentum in the Index, including:

• Chainguard raised $356m Series D

• Saronic raised $600m Series C

• Vahan raised a subsequent round from Persol Group

• Three other Index companies are slated to announce Series Cs shortly

Our 2023 cohort ranks comfortably in the top decile of 2,079 US funds based on Carta’s data (where top decile is 1.2x TVPI for 2023 vintages), our 2024 cohort is also performing above that threshold.

2. Index composition

This chart (Figure 1) demonstrates our index construction in terms of investment sizing per opportunity. Our goal is for the Index to be equal weighted at scale. Current variance in check size reflects variability in fundraising. With new capital inflows, we expect improved consistency.

Figure 1. SignalRank Index by check size

Source: SignalRank

SignalRank’s investment strategy is agnostic to geography, sector and manager. Our Index is majority (67% by number of investments; Figure 2) in the US and the largest sector is artificial intelligence (43%; Figure 3).

Figure 2. SignalRank Index by geography of investment (% of investments)

Source: SignalRank

Figure 3. SignalRank Index by sector (% of investments)

Source: SignalRank; Crunchbase sector designation

Within AI, SignalRank is spotting and funding the next breakout companies (Figure 4).

Figure 4. Select AI companies in the SignalRank Index

3. Sourcing

We have reviewed over 900 pro rata opportunities from 200+ seed managers in the last two years. The 35 Series B investments to date are in support of 27 unique seed managers.

We shared on a previous post how SignalRank is currently experiencing a significant uptick in upcoming high quality Series Bs. The number of post A / pre B opportunities reviewed by SignalRank now exceeds 100+ per month (Figure 5).

Figure 5. Live post A / pre B opportunities reviewed by SignalRank per month since January 2023

Source: SignalRank

4. Access to quality

A major benefit of a quantitative strategy is that you can backtest your model and rank opportunities in real-time to benchmark the success of your strategy. The table below (Figure 6) shows how we invested in two of the top 10 ranked qualifying Series Bs in 2024.

Figure 6. SignalRank’s access to top 10 ranked qualifying Series Bs in 2023 & 2024

Source: SignalRank

In 2025 to date, we have invested in two of the top 10 ranked Series Bs, including the #1 ranked company on our model for this year so far (Together AI). We are seeing our access continue to improve (Figure 7).

Figure 7. SignalRank’s access to top 10 ranked qualifying Series Bs in 2025 (Jan-Mar 2025)

Source: SignalRank

5. Co-investors

SignalRank exclusively invests with the top Series B investors in the world. Our most frequent co-investors (where we have invested 3+ times already) are A16Z, Sequoia, Lightspeed, YC, Khosla, General Catalyst & Founders Fund (Figure 8).

Figure 8. Top co-investors in SignalRank Index (3+ co-investments)

Source: SignalRank; Crunchbase

Since SignalRank started to invest in May 2023, SignalRank is now the #2 most active Series B investor globally in high quality Series Bs (“qualifying” Series Bs per our algorithms; Figure 9).

Figure 9. Top 10 most active investors in qualifying Series Bs since May 2023

Source: SignalRank; Crunchbase

SignalRank is also the #2 most active Series B investor for all Series Bs since May 2023 (including both qualifying and non-qualifying Series Bs; Figure 10).

Figure 10. Top 10 most active investors in all Series Bs since May 2023

Source: SignalRank; Crunchbase

What have we learnt so far?

Some key learnings from our program to date:

1. Pro rata is a problem for almost all seed managers: we estimate that <1% of seed managers have an opportunity fund, and LPs are increasingly expecting managers to stick to their swim lane (see CRV returning $275m from their growth fund). We have been approached by some of the biggest early stage brands in the industry to explore establishing programmatic pro rata side car funds for their own pro rata. Everyone has a pro rata problem.

2. Access is a function of check size: we believe that our Index to date demonstrates that our approach of systematic selection, plus attractive seed partner economics (20% carry) and rapid funding (within a week), improves access and can reduce adverse selection. Larger checks will improve our access further.

3. AI has not changed capital formation patterns so far: AI is enabling teams to build product much more efficiently. But the Greylock thesis that product can be developed with AI but GTM strategies require capital is so far being validated. Some of our Index companies (e.g. Mercor, Together AI) have achieved incredible scale in a short period of time. But they are also raising capital in a fairly traditional manner.

4. Consistent index sizing requires fundraising clarity: macro market events (e.g. SVB bankruptcy) negatively impacted our fundraising which had an unexpected knock-on effect on Index sizing.

5. Geography is important: we like the idea that the world is becoming flatter. But location continues to be important. The US remains the key geography for capital, talent and liquidity. SF (and SF proper alone, not even Silicon Valley) is ground zero for AI.

6. Retail is coming: the market is moving in our direction in terms of indexing private markets (see our earlier post on how to index VC), the democratization of access to VC (see Larry Fink’s recent Chairman letter for BlackRock), and listing of GPs (see General Catalyst’s rumored IPO explorations). The introduction of retail investors to VC is going to be disruptive to allocation models as fund sizes expand.

7. A VC model that scales: we have a lean team of four full-time employees. Our set up already enables us to operating at the target scale of 30 investments per year. We do not anticipate ever requiring a team that is larger than 10-15 people.

What are our goals for the rest of 2025?

It is an exciting moment at SignalRank. We are at an inflection point across each of our core verticals:

• Fundraising: Expand investor base, focusing on family offices and wealth managers.

• Deployment: On pace for 20+ investments in 2025 with 12 already closed and over 300 opportunities reviewed.

• Model Enhancement: Continue to refine our data-driven selection process.

SignalRank aims to become the premier private market index that provides investors access to high quality VC investments in a low cost, scalable & liquid structure.

Onwards…

In the 24 months since our initial investment, SignalRank has deployed capital across three annual cohorts, 2023, 2024 and the in-progress 2025 cohort. The 2023 and 2024 cohorts have already achieved a 1.2x multiple on invested capital (MOIC) placing them in the top decile of venture performance (per Carta data).

The value of SignalRank’s preferred shares has risen to a price of $27.09 a share, having seen four price increases over 24 months due to multiple company up-rounds.

SignalRank selects Series B investments through a scoring system that identifies the top 5% of opportunities. The newest version, v4-ensemble-model, enhances the previous heuristic-only method by incorporating machine learning into an ensemble framework.

The model scores every Series B round as it happens and is designed to predict likely outcomes. It targets a five year MOIC of 5x as its definition of “success”.

v4 is based on a new three year scoring paradigm, a change from the five year horizon used in v3. This means we have fine tuned the heuristic part of the model to score investors on three years of investments and outcomes for every round type. This refinement focuses on more recent investor performance trends.

Selection

v4 selected more and rejected fewer companies than the prior model while improving performance.

The new model rejected 9,732 of 11,344 Series B rounds between 2012-2020 (the backtest). It was 86% accurate in predicting those 9,732 companies would not achieve a 5x in five years MOIC performance. The prior model rejected 10,282 and was 83.5% accurate.

This means that v4 accepted 1,612 selections as qualifiers as compared to 1,062 for v3. That is 52% more investable companies without the cost of reduced performance.

v4 is 28.9% accurate in selecting companies that deliver 5x or more in five years, compared to 27.9% for the prior version. v4 generated 466 companies over 5x in five years as compared to 296 from v3 in 2012-2020.

Take Away: v4 selects more companies and they perform better.

Reference: v4 backtest

Business Performance

MOIC

SignalRank measures performance by both business metrics and data science metrics. Business metrics relate to outcomes from invested capital. Data science metrics are about statistical probabilities and performance against those.

Lets start with business metrics. The business metrics are all about returns, measured in MOIC.

v3 has a 2012-2020 average of 5x, which is excellent by any standards especially when compared to the average of all Series Bs of 3.7x. v4 improves on this with an average over the period of 6.5x.

Median MOIC is is some ways more important due to the power law characteristics of venture investing. Median MOIC for all Series Bs is equal to 1. Literally this means you do not make money.

The median MOIC for v3 is an average of 2.3. For v4 it is 2.2, indicating that the improved average performance of v4 is not bought at the expense of a meaningly lower median.

Unicorns

Measured as a function of the number companies that go on to be unicorns, v4 also outperforms v3.

Unicorn generation

v4 finds 426 unicorns, averaging 32% of all unicorns produced, and 26% of all qualifiers.

v3 finds 304 unicorns, averaging 23% of all unicorns produced, and 29% of all qualifiers.

Data Science Metrics

Data Science measures the performance of a model using the following measures:

True Positive Outcomes - This is where a qualifier equals or beats the 5x in five years target.

True Negative Outcomes: This is where a qualifier fails to equal or beat the 5x in five years target and was predicted to fail.

False Positive Outcomes: This is where a qualifier fails to equal or beat the 5x in five years target but was predicted to do so.

False Negative Outcomes: This is where a qualifier equals or beats the 5x in five years target but was predicted to fail.

For the v3 model these were:

• TP: 202 (correctly predicted worth 5x)

• FP: 520 (incorrectly predicted worth 5x)

• TN: 5,420 (correctly predicted not worth 5x)

• FN: 1,054 (incorrectly predicted not worth 5x)

• This is an accuracy of 78% and a precision of 28% and a real rate of 16%

For the v4 model these are:

• TP: 401 (correctly predicted worth 5x)

• FP: 987 (incorrectly predicted worth 5x)

• TN: 4,906 (correctly predicted not worth 5x)

• FN: 840 (incorrectly predicted not worth 5x)

• This is an accuracy of 74% and a precision of 29% and a recall rate of 32%

v4 outperforms v3 in both recall and precision, which are more critical than accuracy for venture investing.

Recall

Recall is a key number - Recall is the percentage of companies selected that actually became "5x winners"

For the v3 model, the recall is 16%, meaning:

• It only correctly spotted about 16% of the companies that eventually hit the 5x return threshold

• It missed 84% of these successful companies (false negatives)

For the v4-ensemble model, the recall is 32%, meaning:

• It correctly identified about 32% of the companies that ended up as 5x winners

• It still missed 68% of these successful companies, but that's a significant improvement over v3

Higher recall means fewer "missed opportunities" - those potentially lucrative investments that the model incorrectly predicted would not reach the 5x threshold. Overall both recall and precision are important and v4 beats v3 on both.

Operational

v4 is now operational and being used to qualify companies of our partners for Series B investment. The improvement is expected to lead to more investments with improved performance.

• Two years of performance data for The SignalRank Index

• Launch of Version 4 (v4) of its investment selection model

• Availability of the SignalRank Index to accredited U.S. investors and overseas equivalents

• 35 Series B investments completed in 24 months

Since making its first Series B investment in May 2023, SignalRank has emerged as the world’s second most active Series B investor—trailing only Andreessen Horowitz in completed deals. SignalRank has participated in 35 financings alongside leading firms such as Sequoia Capital, General Catalyst, Lightspeed, Khosla Ventures, Accel, Founders Fund, and Kleiner Perkins.

The SignalRank Index—a first-of-its-kind venture capital index—offers qualified investors access to a diversified portfolio of high-growth AI and technology companies. Notable Index constituents include Mercor, Saronic, Chainguard, and Together AI. Shares of the Index are priced daily and are available for purchase by accredited investors and equivalent entities outside the United States. The company ultimately aims to list the Index, expanding access to retail investors and wealth managers.

Early Performance

While venture investing requires a long-term view, preliminary results are promising. As of May 2025, the SignalRank Index reports:

• 2023 cohort: 1.26x multiple on invested capital (MOIC)

• 2024 cohort: 1.2x MOIC

These early returns place the Index in the top decile of performance among comparable venture investments.

“We’re encouraged by the growth of our partner network—now nearing 300 early-stage firms,” said Rob Hodgkinson, Head of Investments at SignalRank. “The quality of both deal selection and access continues to improve, helping us deliver a compelling investment product while supporting our partners at a critical stage of company growth”

Details are available in the SignalRank Index Two-Year Briefing Report.

Launch of v4: Ensemble-Based Investment Selection Model

SignalRank also announced the release of v4, its most advanced company selection model to date. The v4 model combines heuristic and machine learning techniques in an ensemble architecture to identify high-potential Series B investments. Backtesting indicates that v4 can:

• Reject up to 87% of Series B opportunities as unlikely to perform

• Generate a projected average 6x return over five years for annual investment cohorts

  Keith Teare, CEO and CTO said:

“This is the first time we’ve blended heuristics with machine learning into a true ensemble model. The backtest shows performance that exceeds that of any known Series B investor over a five-year horizon. For our partners, it’s a decision support engine; for Index investors, it signals potential returns far ahead of public market benchmarks.”

The full v4 Technical Report is available here: v4 detailed report.

About SignalRank

Founded in 2021, SignalRank Inc. is a C Corporation headquartered in Palo Alto, CA. The company has developed proprietary algorithms to select high-potential companies for Series B investment and partners with nearly 300 early-stage investors to provide follow-on capital to their most promising portfolio companies. Its flagship product, The SignalRank Index, is available to qualified purchasers at a publicly quoted share price.

Notable investors in SignalRank include:

• Lip-Bu Tan (CEO, Intel)

• Tim Draper (Draper Associates)

• Blake Grossman (former Vice Chair, BlackRock and iShares CEO)

• Garry Tan (CEO, Y Combinator)

• Sanjay Jha (former CEO, GlobalFoundries)

• Vint Cerf (VP, Google and TCP/IP co-inventor)

• Ray Lane (former Oracle President and Kleiner Perkins partner)

Important Disclaimer

This release is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial product. A back test is not the same as a promise of market performance and cannot be relied upon for that. Please consult your advisors to consider an investment. Investments in early-stage companies are risky and should be made only by accredited investors after seeking independent professional advice. Any future plans of the Company depends on the satisfaction of a variety of conditions, including, but not limited to, market conditions, regulatory approvals, and the company’s performance at the time. Past performance—including actual or backtested—is not indicative of future results. Signal Rank Corp. is not a registered investment company or advisor under the Investment Company Act of 1940. Our algorithm identifies potential Series B investment opportunities based on historical data which may or may not be complete and does not guarantee any future results. Our portfolio companies are generally private, which means that they do not trade like public securities and may be illiquid and difficult to sell, rending our own securities illiquid and difficult to sell as well. Our securities might be sold at a discount due to their illiquid nature, causing all or part of investments to be lost.

Media Contact:
Keith Teare
kt@signalrank.co
+1-650-704-2674

The output from this work is this list (Figure 1) of the top Series A lead investors, ranked by number of lead investments in $5bn+ companies. He shows A16Z as #1, followed by Sequoia, Benchmark & Accel.

Figure 1. Top Series A lead investors in $5bn+ companies

Using the same list of $5bn+ companies as Rotman, this post conducts the same analysis for Series B lead investors, as well as considering earlier investors.

Series B lead analysis

1. Series B lead investors: General Catalyst is the #1 lead investor

Figure 2 ranks Series B leads in $5bn+ companies (where an investor has led 2+ Series Bs in these companies).

With Crunchbase data, the number of lead investments in all Series Bs since 2012 is shown. This column is used to calculate a hit rate when each of these investors leads a Series B ($5bn+ Series B lead / all Series B lead).

General Catalyst is the #1 investor for leading Series B investments into $5bn+ companies. But Benchmark has an astonishing 19% hit rate when they lead any Series B (followed by Y Combinator at 13% and Greenoaks at 11%).

A16Z is the #1 investor in all Series Bs in $5bn+ companies, with 16 investments (including 5 where it led and 11 where it did not lead).

Figure 2. Series B lead investors in $5bn+ companies

2. Series B market share: no single firm dominates

We then reviewed the market share for each lead in $5bn+ companies, comparable to the analysis that Rotman conducted for Series A (Figure 3).

This demonstrates a fragmented market where no single investor has market power. You would have to be an LP across all top 14 funds to achieve 50%+ market share.

Figure 3. Market share for leading Series Bs in $5bn+ companies

3. Lead investors over time: the best firms have persistence

In Rotman’s analysis, he also considered lead investments over time. Figure 4 shows similar analysis for Series B lead investors.

Figure 4. Lead Series B investments into $5bn+ companies by year

4. Series B hit rate: Benchmark has 11% rate in hitting $5bn+ companies

Finally, we consider an investor’s hit rate for all its Series Bs since 2012 (Figure 5, includes both non-$5bn+ investments and $5bn+ investments, and for both leading and non-leading investments).

Benchmark has a remarkable hit rate, investing in a $5bn+ company 11% of all Series B investments.

Figure 5. All Series B investments since 2012

Who are the earlier investors in these $5bn+ companies?

Pre-seed

Y Combinator is the undisputed champion of pre-seed investing in $5bn+ companies from Rotman’s list, by number of pre-seed investments into these companies. Its six investments at pre-seed include: Brex, DoorDash, Snap, Stripe, Whatnot & OpenAI.

Seed

Y Combinator again dominates seed investing into these companies (Figure 6).

There are 290 unique seed investors in the seed rounds of these $5bn+ companies. It is this large network of investors whose pro rata SignalRank is financing for our own Series B strategy.

Figure 6. Investors with 3+ seed investments into $5bn+ companies

Series A

A16Z is the #1 investor in Series A investments. This list adds to Rotman’s Series A analysis by including both lead & non-lead Series A investments in $5bn+ companies (Figure 7).

There are 228 unique Series A investors in the Series A rounds of these $5bn+ companies.

Figure 7. Investors with 4+ Series A investments into $5bn+ companies

Concluding thoughts

There are no huge surprises here. If anything, this analysis reinforces some core assumptions at SignalRank:

1. There are power laws at every level of VC. VC outcomes are dominated by a small number of companies, financed by a small number of investors, which are backed by a small number of LPs. The success of Y Combinator at pre seed & seed is extraordinary. Benchmark’s hit rate is very impressive.

2. Investor brands have persistence over time. The same investors have been backing the winners for the last 10 years (and mostly for the 10 years before that too).

3. No one individual firm has dominant market share. An LP would need to make an investment into multiple of these winning firms to cover the market. Access & high check size make such a strategy challenging to execute. At SignalRank, we aim to offer an alternative whereby an investor can access greater market share across a diversified portfolio with one single investment into SignalRank itself.

4. A data-driven approach can identify winners at scale. Our model qualified 61% of these companies at Series B. If SignalRank had been operational at the time of these Series Bs, we would have sought to access these companies via the pro rata of our network of more under-the-radar seed managers.

Figure 1. Live post A / pre B opportunities reviewed by SignalRank per month since January 2023

Source: SignalRank

We have already closed four Series Bs in 2025, with another six expected to close in the next couple of months, in companies backed by the best investors in the world (including three A16Z portfolio companies, two Benchmark portfolio companies and two Sequoia portfolio companies). This is tracking at a faster pace than our target of 20 investments this year, and faster even than our long term target of 30 investments per year.

Why is this happening?

The AI boom has arrived in Series B land. Companies which formed after the initial ChatGPT moment in late 2022 are now starting to raise Series Bs.

There are three possible explanations for why SignalRank is seeing more Series B opportunities in 2025: 1) we have a larger network of seed partners today, 2) the quality of seed partners is higher today with a higher volume of quality opportunities and/or 3) market activity is accelerating. While 1) & 2) are certainly true, we believe the uptick in flow is due to AI market activity. It turns out that AI is all you need to reinvigorate the Series B market.

We previously noted in our annual state of the Series B ecosystem report how almost a third of candidates (post Series A / pre Series B companies which we believe have signal; roughly top 10% of Series As) for our product are in AI (see Figure 2). The fastest growing of these Series A companies are now raising their Series Bs, and often within six months from their Series A.

Figure 2. Percentage of qualifying Series As (candidates) per month in AI

Source: Crunchbase

Of the 100+ upcoming Series Bs reviewed by SignalRank this year, 31% are in AI (using Crunchbase’s sector designation as the definition; this almost certainly understates the actual percentage).

SignalRank’s dataset is clearly a sample, not the overall market. But it is worth noting the following about the AI Series B opportunities seen by SignalRank this year:

• 50% are in the Bay Area (36% in SF itself). SignalRank has a global remit and we do see opportunities across the world. This data reflects how SF is the epicenter for AI startups.

• 48% raised their Series A in 2024 and are already raising a Series B. The fastest growing companies are raising Series Bs shortly after their Series As.

• Average of $7m seed round, followed by $23m Series A. AI companies are attracting more capital at each stage than their non-AI peers.

Over 50% of these AI companies raising a Series B were founded after the launch of ChatGPT (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Company founding year (2025 AI Series B opportunities reviewed by SignalRank)

Source: SignalRank

These are high quality opportunities backed by the best investors in the world. The top existing investors in these companies are Benchmark, A16Z and Y Combinator (Figure 4).

Figure 4. Top 5 Series A investors in 2025 AI opportunities reviewed by SignalRank

Source: SignalRank

How does SignalRank’s data compare to the overall market?

According to Crunchbase, there have been 233 Series Bs announced as completed in 2025 so far, of which 36 are in Artificial Intelligence (15%) by their sector designation. Of these AI Series Bs, 28% are in companies in the Bay Area.

The mean Series B in 2025 so far has been $39m. The mean Series B for AI companies in 2025 has been $57m, which is 65% higher than the mean Series B for non-AI companies in 2025 of $35m.

SignalRank is seeing a higher percentage of AI companies: 31% of all Series B opportunities seen by SignalRank are AI companies, compared to 15% for the overall market.

(One caveat is that this is not strict apples to apples, as SignalRank’s data is live / not completed rounds, whereas Crunchbase’s data is completed rounds; this difference in AI companies raising Series Bs could reflect a lag in completion / reporting in the Crunchbase data set.)

Is an AI bubble emerging at Series B?

The overall number of all Series Bs (including non-AI companies) remains subdued relative to historic vintages. The total number of Series Bs in 2024 fell by 6% compared to 2023 to 1,144 (in-line with 2014 levels of activity). Non-AI funding rounds remain slow. But the average round size is the highest of any vintage, as AI today is a capital intensive technology.

It is worth noting that SignalRank has a model which is dynamic to the market, such that the threshold for qualifying for our product changes with live conditions. In this way, when the market heats up, it becomes harder to unlock capital from SignalRank. This means that we are not overly concerned about pacing of deployment for SignalRank’s capital; it does mean that we have had to reduce our average check size to keep up with the number of qualifying opportunities available.

While last year saw some large capex intensive foundational model AI Series Bs (think Mistral & xAI), we are in 2025 seeing a number of vertical AI companies at the application layer scale to $100m+ in ARR within two years of formation. The old “triple triple double double double” formula to building a $1bn+ company looks archaic by comparison.

There are legitimate questions about the quality of this revenue and whether this hyperscaling does indeed demonstrate product/market fit. The first concern is whether the current level of AI budgets within enterprises will sustain. Boards are requiring management teams to formulate & fund an AI strategy. This has led to larger (and possibly artificially large) AI budgets – if no revenue / cost savings result from AI in the short term, will these budgets sustain? McKinsey argues here that most companies are not (yet) getting the returns they had hoped for from AI pilots; ~50% of C-suite respondents argued their AI budgets were at experimental pilot stage. The second concern is that scaling to $100m ARR in <2 years implies that there is a limited moat. How sticky is this revenue? Why couldn’t a competitor replicate this rapid scale?

VC fundraising has become concentrated in the top managers. The top 30 VC brands raised 75% of all capital last year (according to Pitchbook). Larger fund sizes enable these multi-stage managers to write larger checks into ever more companies per vintage. A16Z invested into 29 Series Bs last year - they are on pace to exceed this number in 2025. Given the larger fund sizes, the market size potential of AI and higher rates of company formation of AI startups, heightened activity from these VC brands is entirely rational.

Pricing of high quality Series Bs is high. Revenue multiples are in the 10-40x range (in companies which are targeting 4-5x annual growth in revenue). Public & private AI companies are trading at a premium to non-AI peers, but this premium can currently be rationalized by the higher growth & future growth potential of AI companies.

In short, it does not feel like we are quite back to the 2021 levels of Series B market mania. Not yet.